IPL race to semifinal - Analysis and prediction

Modi couldnt have written a better script than this years race to semifinal. With 6 teams vying for 3 semifinal spot the race maybe decided in the final match between MI and KKR.

I created a table with simple calculations wrt to their Home and away match result and their chances of winning the remaining matches.

MI - They are assured of semifinal with their victory over RR. They have 3 matches remaining one home and 2 away matches. They have the best average in home games(DC's supposed home match in Mumbai is considered as MI's) and their remaining match against DD at home will go either way. But the chances of DD upstaging is pretty high. Out of 2 they will be winning 1 away match against KKR* and lose against RCB.

RCB - They are having 3 more matches with 1 home and 2 away matches. They are playing one away match against DC today which will be very crucial for their SF chances and another against RR which will be a bigger test for them. They have their last match against MI at home which will finally decide where they will be standing in the table.
Chances - Win against MI at home and one away match win probably against DC.

DD - They have 2 away and 1 home match as their last. They in all probability will consider high about away matches than the home game. They have away games against MI and CSK and DC at home. They have the best winning percentage in away matches.
Chances - Will win against CSK and MI matche can go either way. Will not count home match against DC which will be decided by the pitch.

RR - They have one home and one away match. They will give their all in their home match against RCB to win and get ahead in the table. Against KKR at eden gardens will be a big task when we consider their away match records which is one of the worst in this year's IPL.
Chances - Win at home against RCB and lose the away match at Kolkatta.

CSK - They have 2 vital home matches and 1 away match.  Playing KKR and DD in home and playing punjab away. They will be counting their chances against KKR in chennai than DD. So should win against them and hope for the win against KXIP away. Their away match record is also one of the worst in the competition.
Chances - Win against KKR and lose against DD. KXIP nails the CSK's SF chances.

DC - They have one home and 2 away matches. They have relatively good home record and one of the worst away record. So should consider the home match against RCB as their last hope. If they lose this then the defending champion can say goodbye to their chances. They have away matches at Punjab and Delhi. KXIP will try to win their home game to avoid the last place and DD's can go either way.
Chances - Probable lose against RCB and KXIP.

KKR - Has 2 home matches and 1 away match. They are one of the teams which dont like to travel much so cant expect much against CSK in chennai. Will try to win the home matches against RR and MI with their crowd baying for the blood.
Chances - Lose against CSK and a win against RR, a fellow away match struggler. There is a great chance of KKR upsetting MI which is the last match of the league stage.

KXIP - 2 home matches left against DC and CSK. They have the worst home match record for this year with only 20% winning ratio. Actually their campaign got some momentum only in the second half with winning 3 out of 5 matches. So they cannot be ruled out of the remaining matches. Will try their level best to avoid the wooden spoon and give their home support something to cheer for. By the way the matches are being held in Dharmasala which is the highest cricket ground in India. Will be looking forward eagerly to see the live action.
Chances - Upsetting both DC and CSK and make them stay in the bottom half.

So lots of high power action expected in the following week.

My prediction

MI,RCB,DD,RR or KKR

IPL - Fringe players who can be seen in action

We have seen many unknown players,ICL returnees make a mark in this years IPL. But there are few more players who have been neglected so far this year. I would like to see them in action in the remaining matches.

These players can be tried in few games

MI - Graham Napier,Ali Murtaza
DD - Sarandeep Singh, Yo Mahesh, Avishkar Salvi
RCB - Buvaneshwar Kumar, Steven Smith
RR - Kamran Khan,Amit Singh (Both are returning from their action modification)
CSK - Arun Karthik,Thissara Perrera,C Ganapathy
KKR - Chirag Pathak, G Vignesh
DC - Mithchell Marsh
KXIP - Love Ablish, Adrian Barath, Reetinder singh Sodhi

MI can actually try out new players as the team is sure about their standing in the table. Grabam Napier a T20 specialist can come in place of Mclaren for few games

DD are also in a kind of confirmed stage so they can try Salvi/Yo mahesh in place of Sangwan and can try Sarandeep Singh to give a break to Mishra or in place of Bhatia.

RCB will be hardpressed to try out S Smith as they have bigger players sitting out. Maybe BKumar tried in place of VKumar but chances are very less.

RR is the only team which kind of rotates their local players so they can easily try them out.

CSK most probably will not change their winning combination but maybe Perrera for Hayden/Hussey. I will be really happy if the other 2 indian players get a few games.

KKR is doing a great injustice by sitting out Vignesh a better player than some of those who are playing now.

DC seriously dont have much of a choice now other than to do something dramatic to their campaign. Why not a game to the most talked about U19 player from australia. It will not be worse than the current situation they are in.

KXIP - Nothing going to matter any more so better to try a new guy and get some positive energy to the team. If they dont play either Sodhi/Ablish they have seriously change their backroom staff.

As the tournament is in its last phase of league stage only very few team will tinker with their line up. If they change maybe they can unearth another potential match winner for them.